Policy Analysis No. 228 May 25, 1995

MEDICAL SAVINGS ACCOUNTS: ANSWERING THE CRITICS

by Michael Tanner

Michael Tanner is director of health and welfare studies at the Cato Institute.

       
Executive Summary
       
            As the movement for medical savings accounts (MSAs) 
       picks up speed in Congress, critics of consumer-based health 
       care reform are mounting a counterattack.  An examination of 
       the evidence shows that their criticisms of MSAs are just 
       plain wrong.  For example:
       
       * Critics claim health care has become so complex that con-
       sumers are no longer capable of making cost-conscious deci-
       sions about their treatment.  However, numerous scientific 
       studies show that health care consumers can and do make cost-
       conscious decisions when given a financial incentive to do 
       so.
       
       * Critics say consumers will forgo necessary or preventive 
       care to save money in their medical savings accounts, but 
       studies show that MSAs do not deter preventive care.  Rather, 
       savings result from reduced use of optional services and 
       cost-based selection among competing providers.  
       
       * According to critics, MSAs would attract the healthy, 
       leaving the sick with conventional insurance.  If so, that 
       "adverse selection" would drive up the cost of traditional 
       insurance.  However, companies currently using MSA-style 
       health plans have not had significant problems with adverse 
       selection.  
       
       * Critics claim MSAs are regressive, providing benefits pri-
       marily to the wealthy.  Our current system of providing a tax 
       break only for employer-provided insurance is far more re-
       gressive.  
       
            MSAs represent a significant step in solving the prob-
       lems facing our health care system.  Supporters of MSAs 
       should not be distracted by flawed and misplaced criticisms.
                 
             
      Introduction
            
                 Despite the defeat of the Clinton health care plan, the 
            need for significant health care reform remains.  Health 
            care continues to cost too much.  Approximately 40 million 
            Americans still don't have health insurance.  Millions of 
            working men and women live in fear that if they lose their 
            jobs they will lose their health insurance.
                 
                 One of the most popular alternatives for health care 
            reform likely to be considered by the 104th Congress is 
            medical savings accounts (MSAs).  Support for this concept 
            cuts across party and ideological lines, with Democrats as 
            well as Republicans, liberals as well as conservatives, 
            supporting MSA proposals.   
                 
                 It is easy to see why this idea is so popular.  MSAs 
            would allow individuals to save money in a tax-exempt ac-
            count, in much the same way they can in independent retire-
            ment accounts (IRAs) now.(1)  The person could use that money 
            to pay routine medical expenses.  Then, instead of an expen-
            sive first-dollar insurance policy, he or she could purchase 
            a relatively inexpensive catastrophic insurance policy to 
            protect against major medical expenses.  
            
                 It costs an employer more than $5,400 to provide health 
            insurance for a typical American worker today, his or her 
            spouse, and two children.(2)  Wouldn't it be better if, in-
            stead, the employer bought a catastrophic policy (with, say, 
            a $3,000 deductible) for approximately $2,400 and paid the 
            worker the $3,000 difference?  The employee could then put 
            that money in an MSA. (See Figure 1.)  Any money that wasn't 
            spent would roll over to the next year.  Since 90 percent of 
            Americans spend less than $3,000 per year on health care, in 
            a very short time the worker would have a tidy pool of money 
            available to use in the future.  When the balance reached a 
            certain level, the worker could transfer the funds to an IRA 
            or other retirement fund.
            
                 Most proposals for health care reform focus on govern-
            ment, physicians, hospitals, and insurers.  MSAs are unique 
            because they focus on the most important participant 
            in the health care system--the consumer.     
            
                 MSAs would establish an incentive for consumers to act 
            responsibly in making their health care decisions.  Consumer 
            behavior is a key component in controlling health care 
            costs.  Our current system discourages cost-oriented deci-
            sionmaking and encourages overconsumption and overuse of 
            health care services.  

            
     Figure 1
            
            How MSAs Work

            
            [Graph Omitted]            
            
            Source: Patient Power.
            
            
                 Under our current third-party insurance system, most 
            health care consumers do not pay for their health care. 
            Nearly 95 percent of hospital bills and more than 80 percent 
            of physician fees are paid for by private health insurance. 
            On the average, 76 cents of every dollar used to purchase 
            health care is paid by someone other than the consumer who 
            purchased it.(3) (See Figure 2).  As a result, consumers have 
            little incentive to question costs and every incentive to 
            demand more services.
            
                 However, with MSAs, patients would be spending more of 
            their own money, giving them an incentive to become cost-
            conscious consumers. 
            
                 A second advantage of MSAs is that they would be com-
            pletely portable.  One of the most serious problems of our 
            current health care system is that insurance is so closely 
            linked with employment.(4)  That means that if you lose your 
            job or change jobs, you are in danger of losing your insur-
            ance.  Of the estimated 37 million Americans without health 
            insurance at any given time, half are uninsured for four 
            months or fewer, and only 15 percent are uninsured for more 
             
            
     Figure 2
            
            Percentage of Personal Health Expenses Paid by
            Third Parties, 1965 and 1990

            [Graph Omitted]
            
            Hospital
            1965  83.2%
            1990  95.0%

            Physician
            1965  38.4%
            1990  81.3%
 
            All Services
            1965  48.4%
            1990  76.7%
                    
            
            Source: Patient Power.
            
            
            than two years.(5)  (See Figure 3.)  Most of these temporary, 
            short-term spells without insurance happen to individuals 
            between jobs.  With an MSA, individuals would have funds 
            available to pay for health care and health insurance during 
            such temporary interruptions.(6)
            
                 Moreover, expenses paid out of an MSA would entail no 
            insurance administrative cost.  Insurance is a very ineffi-
            cient way to pay for small or routine health expenses.  
            Significantly more administrative costs are involved in 
            processing a large number of small claims than in processing 
            a few large claims with an equal dollar value.  Indeed, 
            premiums generally fall as average claim size increases.(7) 
            MSAs would cut insurance companies out of the vast majority 
            of health care transactions, particularly small claims where 
            insurance is least efficient.  That would reduce both the 
            overall cost of health care and the paperwork burden on 
            doctors.   
            
  
     Figure 3
            
            How Long Do People Go without Health Insurance? 
            
            [Graph Omitted]

            Uninsured for Fewer Than 6 Months  50%
            Uninsured for Less Than 1 Year     72%
            Uninsured for Fewer Than 2 Years   82%
                     
            
            Source: "Spells without Health Insurance: Distributions of         

            Durations and Their Link to Point-in-Time Estimates of the         

            Uninsured," Inquiry 27 (Fall 1990).
            
            
                 However, even as MSAs have gained popularity, those who 
            support a government takeover of the American health care 
            system, supported by large insurance companies who fear a 
            loss of premium income if MSAs become widespread, have 
            mounted a sustained attack on this free-market approach to 
            health care reform.  They allege that MSAs would not reduce 
            health care costs, could bankrupt the health care system, 
            and would primarily benefit the wealthy. 
            
                 Yet an examination of the most common criticisms of 
            MSAs shows that these critiques are either misleading or 
            simply wrong.  
            
            
     Are Consumers Stupid? 
                                               
                 From Hillary Rodham Clinton to Alain Enthoven, critics 
            of MSAs have argued that health care has become too complex 
            for average patients to make rational decisions about their 
            treatment.  This argument generally takes one of two some-
            what contradictory tracks: a) consumers will not reduce 
            spending because they will mindlessly accept any treatment
            proposed by their doctor, and b) consumers will forgo neces-
            sary and preventive treatment to save money.  
            
                 Rep. Pete Stark (D-Calif.), for example, has said that 
            patients either "feel they are invincible [if healthy]" or, 
            when sick, are "absolutely brain dead, sniveling, begging 
            and fantasizing ills and pains."(8)  Neither is supported by 
            the facts.
                 
                 Some of the most compelling evidence that consumers can 
            and do make cost-based decisions on health care comes from a 
            study performed by the RAND Corporation in the late 1970s.(9) 
            That study assigned families to four health insurance plans 
            with differing copayment provisions and deductibles.  Some 
            families had no copayment or deductible, meaning that the 
            plan paid all their medical bills, while other families had 
            to pay up to 95 percent of the cost of their medical bills, 
            until their bills reached a deductible of $1,000 in 1973 
            dollars, which is the equivalent of approximately $2,850 in 
            today's dollars.
                 
                 The RAND researchers observed how the different copay-
            ment rates influenced the use of medical resources by 2,500 
            families for three to five years.  They concluded that "the 
            data from the Health Insurance Experiment clearly shows that 
            the use of medical services responds to changes in the 
            amount paid out-of-pocket."(10)  In particular, families with 
            no copayment used 53 percent more hospital services (mea-
            sured in dollars) and 63 percent more visits to doctors, 
            drugs, and other services than did the families with the 95 
            percent copayment.  Overall, the total use of medical re-
            sources was 58 percent greater for the group with no copay-
            ment, despite virtually identical health outcomes.
            
                 Even smaller copayment rates produced savings.  The 
            study found that an individual with no copayment spent 18 
            percent more on health care than an individual with a 25 
            percent copayment. (For the results of the RAND experiment, 
            see Table 1.)
            
                 The RAND study essentially confirms earlier studies by 
            Martin Feldstein and others.(11)  In addition, studies of 
            specific health care services such as mental health(12) and 
            prescription drugs(13) have shown that consumers will make 
            cost-conscious decisions if given an incentive to do so.
            
                 Several studies have called into question the degree to 
            which physicians are actually able to induce demand.(14) 
            University of Washington economist Michael Morrisey, for 
            example, points out that the inflation-adjusted median 

            
     Table 1
            
            RAND Health Insurance Experiment: Increased Spending
            over Plans with No Copayment

            
                                         95% Copayment     25% Copayment
                                                                               

                                                     
            Physician visits                   167%           137%
            Outpatient expenses                167%           131%
            Admissions                         129%           122%
            Inpatient expenses                 130%           110%
            Probability of any use             128%           110%
            Probability of any inpatient use   130%           123%
            Total expenses                     145%           118%
                                                                               

            Source: Manning et al. (1987)
            Note: "95% Copayment" requires out-of-pocket expenditures of 95    
            cents on the dollar for covered services.  "25% Copayment" requires
            out-of-pocket expenditures of 25 cents on the dollar for covered   
            services.
            
            
            income of physicians has declined since 1975, suggesting 
            that physicians are not able to generate an unlimited demand 
            for their services regardless of price.(15)  Others suggest 
            that even if physicians are able to induce demand, consumer 
            decisions will still be influenced by their perceived costs 
            as distorted through third-party payments.(16)
            
                 Certainly, a person suffering a heart attack or in-
            volved in an automobile accident is not going to comparison 
            shop for the best price.  But fewer than 15 percent of 
            health care expenditures are emergency in nature.(17)  For 
            nonemergency services, it is possible for consumers to shop 
            and compare.  For example, one study found that the cost for 
            cataract surgery in Illinois ranged from $650 to $5,674 
            depending on the hospital; hernia surgery ranged from $404 
            to $4,329; and mammograms ranged from $35 to $178.(18)
            
                 MSA critics also warn that consumers lack the informa-
            tion and expertise necessary to make such decisions.  Clear-
            ly, many patients will have to rely on the advice of a 
            physician that they know and trust.  Such patient-physician 
            relationships have long been at the heart of health care, 
            but are not unique to medical goods and services.  Few 
            Americans know all the details of automotive repair.  When 
            their cars break down, they rely on the advice of mechanics 
            whom they know and trust.  
            
                 Moreover, the market is already generating an increas-
            ing number of resources to provide consumers with informa-
            tion on health care prices, quality, and availability. 
            Automated medical information lines offer prerecorded facts 
            and figures, while live lines such as Ask a Nurse, Doctors 
            by Phone, and Pharmacy Question? offer person-to-person 
            contacts with health care professionals.(19)  As more and more 
            consumers take control of their health care decisions, such 
            information resources can be expected to proliferate.  
            
                 Academic studies of consumer ability to make cost-
            conscious health care decisions are confirmed by real-world 
            experience.  Several companies have established MSA-style 
            insurance plans and have realized significant savings as a 
            result of changed consumer behavior by their workers.  Among 
            these are Golden Rule Insurance Company, Dominion Resources, 
            Forbes Inc., Quaker Oats, and Indresco Corporation.(20)  
                 
                 If it is shown that consumers do change behavior ac-
            cording to financial incentives, MSA critics then move on to 
            part (b) of their argument: consumers will forgo necessary 
            or preventive care to save money.  As a result, they will 
            end up sicker and cost the system more money in the future. 
            
                 However, once again the facts dispute the critics' 
            contention.  Analysts studying the RAND Health Insurance 
            Experiment concluded, "We reject the hypothesis that less 
            favorable coverage of outpatient services increases total 
            expenditure . . . by deterring preventive care."(21)
            
                 The RAND experiment found that the reduced expenditures 
            are not caused by individuals forgoing truly necessary 
            health care.  Health outcomes were virtually identical.(22) 
            Rather, the savings resulted from a reduced use of optional 
            services and cost-based selection between competing provid-
            ers.  
            
                 There is even evidence that MSAs will increase the 
            likelihood of seeking preventive care, particularly among 
            low-wage earners.  Under conventional insurance, individuals 
            receive no reimbursement until they have met the deductible. 
            That places all the spending disincentive on the first 
            expenditures of the year, expenditures that are most likely 
            to involve preventive care.  For low-wage earners, who may 
            lack the resources to pay for these expenses out of pocket, 
            that disincentive creates a strong likelihood that they will 
            forgo preventive care.
             
                 MSAs, in contrast, flatten the spending curve, spread-
            ing the spending disincentive over the entire $3,000 rather 
            than focusing it on the first expenditure. 
            
                 Indeed, MSAs would actually provide low-wage earners 
            with a pool of money that they could use to pay for preven-
            tive care.  A survey of Golden Rule employees with MSAs 
            found that 20 percent used their MSAs for medical services 
            that they would not have purchased with traditional plans. 
            Yet, overall health spending declined.(23)  
            
            
     MSAs and Health Care Costs 
                                          
                 Critics of MSAs also claim that even if consumer behav-
            ior changed it would have little impact on overall health 
            care costs because the majority of costs occur at a level 
            above the $3,000 deductible envisioned by MSA supporters. 
            As Alain Enthoven puts it, "The $3,000 deductible does 
            nothing to motivate reduction of expenditures on high-cost 
            treatments.... Once someone is told she is pregnant, or has 
            cancer, or must be admitted to a hospital, she might as well 
            write off the $3,000 and say 'bring on more technology.'"(24)
            
                 It is clearly true that the vast majority of health 
            care expenditures are made by only a tiny fraction of the 
            population.  The evidence suggests that the spending curve 
            steepens sharply after $3,000.  In a typical insurance pool 
            about 4 percent of the people spend approximately 50 percent 
            of the health care dollars. (See Figure 4.)
            
                 Even so, a substantial portion of health care expendi-
            tures, between one-third and one-half of all health care 
            spending, is on bills below $3,000.(25)  If spending were 
            reduced on just this portion of health care expenditures, 
            overall costs would be significantly affected.
            
                 Second, the incentive structure created by MSAs could 
            prevent some expenditures from ever reaching the $3,000 
            level.  For example, if an individual seeking to preserve 
            the $3,000 in an MSA avoids an unnecessary $6,000 operation, 
            she or he reduces spending above the $3,000 level as well as 
            below.(26)
            
                 Perhaps most important, this argument ignores the 
            impact that reduced prices will have throughout the health 
            care system.  If the price of an x-ray is reduced, it will 
            
            
      Figure 4
            
            Distribution of Medical Expenses among 50 People
            
            
            [Graph Omitted]
            
            
            Source: Patient Power.
            Note: Assumes a $250 deductible and a 20 percent copayment on the  
            next $5,000 of expenses.  Period of coverage is one year.
            
            
            be reduced for people who spend more than $3,000 in a year 
            as well as for those who don't.  There is overwhelming 
            evidence that prices will be reduced in response to cost-
            sensitive purchasing by consumers.  For example, a study by 
            Joseph Newhouse and Charles Phelps found that a 10 percent-
            age point increase in out-of-pocket expenditures resulted in 
            a 2 percent reduction in the price of physician services.(27) 
            Likewise, several studies have found that increased third-
            party payments have led to price increases, making it likely 
            that decreased third-party payments would lead to price 
            decreases.(28)  
            
                 That criticism also ignores the tremendous potential 
            for administrative savings with MSAs.  Administrative costs 
            amount to between 19.3 and 24.1 percent of total American 
            health spending.(29)  Considerably more claims are submitted            
            for expenses below $3,000 than above $3,000.  Thus adminis-
            trative expenses are disproportionately concentrated in low 
            dollar claims.  By eliminating much of the paperwork and 
            other administrative costs associated with third-party 
            payment of these claims, overall health care spending could 
            be reduced significantly.  Some estimates indicate that MSAs 
            could save as much as $33 billion per year in reduced admin-
            istrative costs.(30)    
            
            
     Will MSAs Bankrupt the System?  
            
                 One of the most widely circulated recent criticisms of 
            MSAs has been leveled by John Burry, CEO of Blue Cross and 
            Blue Shield of Ohio.(31)  Burry claims that MSAs "would create 
            a large financial shortfall that would bankrupt our health 
            care system."(32)  Because Burry's criticism of MSAs appears 
            more scientific than others, it is worth examining his 
            claims in detail.
            
                 Burry bases his argument on his analysis of the claims 
            experience of 38,729 families currently insured by Blue 
            Cross and Blue Shield of Ohio.  According to Burry, total 
            claims by this group were $159 million, or an average of 
            $4,113 per family.  Approximately 10 percent of the families 
            were responsible for 55 percent of this total, or approxi-
            mately $88 million, with the remaining 90 percent of fami-
            lies incurring claims of approximately $71 million.  For the 
            10 percent incurring the highest claims, the average charges 
            were $22,747, compared with an average of $2,045 for the 
            remaining 90 percent.(33)
            
                 Burry then assumes that a catastrophic insurance policy 
            purchased in conjunction with an MSA would cost $1,200.  His 
            assumption is based on the Clinton administration's claims 
            that the cost of health care for the average American family 
            is $4,200 (very close to the $4,113 in charges for Ohio). 
            Burry suggests that if the family subtracts $3,000 for 
            deposit in an MSA, there remains $1,200 to purchase a cata-
            strophic policy.  That would result in a total premium 
            payment of $46.5 million.(34)
            
                 Next, Burry estimates that 68 percent of the families 
            would spend less than the $3,000 in their MSAs.  These 
            families would average spending $961 from their MSAs, a 
            total of $25.3 million.  The remaining 32 percent of fami-
            lies would spend all $3,000 in their MSA, totaling $37.2 
            million.(35)  Thus, the total spending from MSA funds would be 
            approximately $62.5 million.  Adding the $62.5 million in 
            MSA spending to the $46.5 million in catastrophic insurance
            premiums yields total health care spending of $109 million. 
            But, since claims totaled $159.3 million, this results in a 
            $50.3 million deficit.(36)  Projecting this deficit over the 
            entire U.S. health care system leads to a potential short-
            fall of $83.6 billion.(37)
            
                 However, Burry's analysis is far from accurate.  For 
            example, Burry confuses "billed charges" with insurance 
            premiums.  Under Burry's example, the families had average 
            charges of $4,113.  However, assuming an industry standard 
            loss ratio of 75 percent, the families would pay an average 
            premium of $5,484.(38)  That means that after putting $3,000 
            in an MSA, the family would have $2,484 left over, more than 
            enough to pay for a catastrophic policy.  This would yield 
            total premiums of $96.2 million.  Adding this revised premi-
            um total to the $62.5 million in MSA expenditures equals 
            total expenditures of $158.7 million.  If total charges in 
            the system were $159.3 million, the results are a statisti-
            cally meaningless deficit of only $600,000.
            
                 Second, Burry assumes that the family currently has no 
            out-of-pocket exposure.  But that is highly unlikely. 
            Nearly all policies sold by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of 
            Ohio require both copayments and deductibles.  If the fami-
            lies in question averaged only $500 in out-of-pocket expens-
            es, there would be an additional $19.4 million in the sys-
            tem, providing an actual surplus of nearly $19 million.
            
                 Most important, all of this assumes no change in behav-
            ior among health care consumers and therefore no reduction 
            in health care expenditures.   But the entire concept of 
            MSAs is that it would change consumer behavior.
            
                 Similar flaws can be found in a discussion of MSA 
            distributions by the Medical Savings Account Working Group 
            of the American Academy of Actuaries.  The actuaries con-
            clude that "the savings to employers of replacing low-
            deductible plans with very high-deductible plans would be 
            substantially less than the change in the deductible that 
            the workers would have to pay."(39)  Their logic is very simi-
            lar to Burry's.  Because "10 percent of covered individuals 
            account for between 70 and 80 percent of all health insur-
            ance claims" subsidies by nonconsuming insured individuals 
            are required to hold down premium costs for the catastrophic 
            policies.(40)
            
                 However the actuaries also repeat Burry's errors.  "For 
            simplicity," the actuaries made three very flawed assump-
            tions:
            
                 1. Current plans "pay all claims (i.e., that the de-
                 ductible amount and coinsurance are all zero)."
            
                 2. "There are no administrative costs or profits asso-
                 ciated with the (traditional) plan."
                 
                 3. There is "no change in behavior" for people with a 
                 medical savings account.(41)
            
                 Every one of these assumptions is incorrect.  As noted 
            above, nearly all current insurance policies require copay-
            ments and deductibles.  Heavy administrative costs are 
            associated with traditional insurance plans, as much as 33.5 
            cents of every premium dollar, according to some esti-
            mates.(42)  And, as stated above, the purpose of MSAs is to 
            change behavior.  Indeed, elsewhere in their report the 
            actuaries themselves propose that MSAs will make Americans 
            "more conscious of their health care and more thoughtful 
            about the casual utilization of care" providing "a substan-
            tial role in reducing health care inflation."(43)
            
                 The actuaries do not agree with Burry that MSAs would 
            bankrupt the health care system, but merely contend that the 
            cost of catastrophic insurance would increase, leaving a gap 
            between the savings an employee would have to deposit in the 
            MSA and the deductible.  However, even if this did occur, 
            the vast majority of individuals with low medical expenses 
            would be unaffected.  Those few who did face out-of-pocket 
            expenses would be likely to have less exposure than under 
            traditional deductibles and copayments.  Finally, because 
            there would be additional contributions to the MSAs each 
            year, any shortfall is likely to be a one-time occurrence.  
            
            
     Are MSAs Regressive? 
            
                 According to critics, MSAs would primarily benefit "the 
            rich, because they get the biggest benefit from tax-free 
            investments."(44)  They argue that MSAs, like the IRAs they 
            resemble, disproportionately benefit taxpayers in the high-
            est tax brackets, because all tax deductions are worth more 
            to those individuals.(45) 
            
                 However, it is today's system of tax breaks only for 
            employer-provided insurance that really favors the wealthy. 
            In this country we give American workers and their families 
            very generous tax relief on their medical expenses, but only 
            on two conditions.  First, they must obtain their medical 
            care through health insurance.  And second, they must obtain 
            their health insurance through their employers.   
             
                 As a result, if one works for a Fortune 500 corporation 
            that provides an all-inclusive first-dollar insurance plan, 
            the worker receives it tax free.   But a small business 
            owner, waitress, or truck driver has to pay for health care 
            out of pocket or purchase insurance, and receives no tax 
            break at all.  MSAs would help to level this playing field, 
            giving these workers a chance to save on a tax-free basis 
            for the health care. 
            
                 A study by the Congressional Budget Office noted how 
            regressive the current tax structure for health care is. 
            The CBO points out:
            
                 The tax exclusion provides a subsidy for employ-
                 ment-based health insurance premiums that increas-
                 es with the size of premiums, the share of the 
                 premiums paid by the employers, and the marginal 
                 tax rate.  These factors all increase with in-
                 come.... Moreover, families with higher incomes 
                 are much more likely to have employment-based 
                 health insurance than families with lower in-
                 comes.(46)
                 
                 A study conducted by Lewin-VHI in 1994 for the Heritage 
            Foundation found that households with incomes greater than 
            $50,000 per year received $35 billion in tax relief, while 
            households with incomes under $20,000 received only $2.7 
            billion in tax relief.(47)  Urban Institute economist Eugene 
            Steurle concludes that the current tax treatment of health 
            care provides a family in the top fifth of income earners 
            almost six times as much benefit as a family in the lowest 
            quintile.(48) (See Figure 5.) 
            
                 All tax deductions are by nature regressive.  MSAs are 
            certainly no more so than the current system.  Indeed, the 
            fact that contributions are limited to $3,000 makes them 
            slightly less regressive than the current open-ended tax 
            exclusion.  Congress can take steps to replace the current 
            tax exclusion with a universal health care tax credit.  Such 
            a credit could even be made refundable.  However, such 
            actions are independent of support for MSAs.
            
                 A corollary of the argument over regressiveness is the 
            assertion by some critics that the poor would lack the money 
            to contribute to MSAs.  The Center for Budget and Policy 
            Priorities notes that pre-1986 IRAs were used primarily by 
            those with higher incomes.  In 1986, for example, 66 percent 
            of individuals with incomes in the top 4 percent of  taxpay-
            ers took IRA deductions, while only 4 percent of workers 
            
            
      Figure 5
            
            Estimated Average Value per Recipient Household of
            Federal Tax Exclusions for Employer Health Insurance,
            Fiscal Year 1992

            [Graph Omitted]
            
            Quintile of Household Income

            Lowest     $270
            Second     $525
            Third      $690
            Fourth   $1,025
            Highest  $1,500
            
            
            Source: C. Eugene Steurle, "The Search for Adaptable Health Policy 
            through Finance-Based Reform," in American Health Policy: Critical 
            Issues for Reform, ed. Robert Helms (Washington: American          
            Enterprise Institute, 1993).
            
            
            with incomes below $15,000 did so.  They contend that MSAs 
            would work the same way.(49)
            
                 However, contributing to an IRA required an individual 
            to divert income that could have been used for another 
            purpose.  It was, in effect, an additional expenditure.  For 
            the vast majority of Americans who receive their insurance 
            through their employer, MSAs merely represent a different             
            way of receiving their insurance benefits.  No additional 
            expenditure would be required.
            
                 Those individuals who do not receive employer-provided 
            insurance would have to make an additional expenditure. 
            However, at least they would receive a tax break for that 
            expenditure, which is more than they receive under the 
            current unfair system.  The question of whether and to what 
            degree there should be subsidies to assist these individuals 
            to buy insurance is independent of MSAs.
            
                 Finally, it should be noted that if one is concerned 
            about the impact of health care reform on the poor, no one 
            would benefit more than the poor from the lower health care 
            prices that MSAs are designed to bring about.
                 
            
     The Adverse Selection Problem
                                               
                 The final criticism leveled by critics of MSAs is that 
            such a plan would appeal primarily to the young and healthy, 
            leading to adverse selection that will drive up the cost of 
            traditional first-dollar coverage.
            
                 In analyzing MSAs in 1994, the Congressional Budget 
            Office warned that "the availability of the catastrophic-
            plus-MSA option would exacerbate the problem of adverse 
            selection."(50)  According to the CBO, as healthy people in-
            creasingly choose MSAs combined with catastrophic insurance, 
            the pool of people purchasing traditional low-deductible 
            insurance will become steadily sicker.  To compensate, 
            insurers will have to increase the cost of such insurance. 
            Eventually, low-deductible insurance will become so expen-
            sive as to "threaten the existence of standard health insur-
            ance."(51)
            
                 The problem of adverse selection becomes even worse if 
            individuals can move freely from one insurance policy to 
            another.  As the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities 
            warns, "There would be strong incentives to accumulate tax-
            advantaged savings [in medical savings accounts] at times 
            when few health care expenses are anticipated.... When medi-
            cal expenses became more probable, the individual could 
            simply switch to comprehensive coverage and keep the MSA 
            accumulation as savings."(52)
            
                 The experience of companies currently using MSA-style 
            health plans has not shown significant problems with adverse 
            selection.  At companies such as Golden Rule, employees with 
            chronic illnesses have chosen MSAs nearly as frequently as
            have healthy workers.  The reason is that the copayments and 
            deductibles under traditional insurance leave those workers 
            with chronic conditions facing significant expenses every 
            year.  Under such a traditional policy, a worker with a $250 
            deductible and a 20 percent copayment up to $3,000 and a 
            chronic condition costing more than $15,000 per year can 
            anticipate paying $3,250 out of pocket every year.  With an 
            MSA, the worker would have little or no out-of-pocket ex-
            pense.
            
                 In addition, the likely alternative to MSAs, managed 
            care with its limits on the choice of physician and treat-
            ment and restrictions on access to specialists, can be 
            unpopular with the chronically ill.  Indeed, a study from 
            the National Center for Policy Analysis demonstrates that it 
            is the chronically ill who are most likely to be short-
            changed under managed care.(53)  Therefore, MSAs may well be a 
            popular alternative for this group. 
            
                 However, if adverse selection did occur and increase 
            the cost of low-deductible policies, that would not neces-
            sarily be a bad thing.   It is traditional, low-deductible 
            insurance that is driving up the cost of health care.  If 
            such policies become unsustainable and most Americans move 
            to an MSA plus catastrophic coverage, the result will be 
            lower health care costs.  The market will merely have pro-
            vided an incentive for a socially beneficial change in 
            behavior.
            
                 The issue of individuals using MSAs when healthy and 
            shifting to traditional insurance when they become sick 
            would exist primarily in an environment where insurance was 
            not properly risk rated.  If insurers are permitted to base 
            premiums on an individual's health status and to refuse 
            coverage to individuals with preexisting conditions, it 
            would not be possible to "game" the system in this manner. 
            Therefore, this critique becomes an argument against commu-
            nity rating and "guaranteed issue," not against MSAs.
            
            
     Conclusion
                                          
                 MSAs are not a "magic bullet" that will solve all our 
            health care problems.  However, they will have a significant 
            impact on reducing health care costs, while expanding access 
            to care and preserving consumer choice and the quality of 
            our health care system.
            
                 Ultimately, only three entities can control health care 
            costs: government, through rationing; insurance companies,
            through managed care (another form of rationing); or indi-
            vidual consumers.  MSAs provide the incentive for individual 
            consumers to make cost-conscious decisions.  Recent criti-
            cisms of MSAs are not accurate.
            
                 1. Consumers are capable of making cost-conscious 
                 decisions about health care purchases.
            
                 2. In making cost-conscious decisions, consumers 
                 do not forgo necessary or preventive care.
            
                 3. MSAs will reduce costs throughout the health 
                 care system, not just on spending below $3,000.
            
                 4. MSAs will not bankrupt the health care system.
            
                 5. MSAs are no more regressive than the current 
                 health care system.
            
                 6. The adverse selection problem has been over-
                 stated.
            
                 Medical savings accounts may not be perfect, but they 
            represent a significant step in solving the problems facing 
            our health care system.  Supporters of MSAs should not be 
            distracted by flawed and misplaced criticisms.
            
            
     Notes
                                          
            (1)  For a full discussion of MSAs see John C. Goodman and 
            Gerald Musgrave, Patient Power: Solving America's Health 
            Care Crisis (Washington: Cato Institute, 1992).
            (2)  KPMG Peat Marwick Survey of Employer-Sponsored Health 
            Benefits, 1994.
            (3)  Goodman and Musgrave, p. 77.
            (4)  The link between employment and insurance is largely a 
            historic accident.  During World War II, American businesses 
            simultaneously faced a labor shortage and wage-price con-
            trols.  As a result they began to offer health insurance 
            benefits as a way to lure workers.  After the war, the 
            practice was sufficiently widespread that it became en-
            sconced in the tax code, making employer-provided health 
            insurance a tax-free benefit, while individually purchased 
            insurance received no tax break.  Today, nearly 85 percent 
            of people with health insurance receive it through their 
            employers.  For a detailed look at how this policy devel-
            oped, see Goodman and Musgrave, pp. 137-63.
            (5)  Katherine Swartz and Timothy McBride, "Spells without 
            Health Insurance: Distributions of Durations and Their Link 
            to Point-in-Time Estimates of the Uninsured," Inquiry 27 
            (Fall 1990).
            (6)  Under current law, individuals who leave an employer who 
            employs more than 25 workers and provides health insurance 
            are entitled to pay the premiums and extend their coverage 
            for up to 18 months.  However, most newly unemployed persons 
            are not able to pay the premiums and allow their insurance 
            to lapse.  An MSA would provide a pool of funds that could 
            be used to pay the premium during this period of unemploy-
            ment.
            (7)  See, for example, Alan Sorkin, Health Economics: An 
            Introduction (New York: Lexington Books, 1992), pp. 168, 
            182. 
            (8)  Remarks by Congressman Fortney "Pete" Stark to a confer-
            ence on "Prospects for Health Care Reform Under Clinton," 
            Washington, D.C., January 14, 1993.
            (9)  Joseph Newhouse et al., "Some Interim Results from a       
            Controlled Trial of Cost Sharing in Health Insurance," New 
            England Journal of Medicine (December 17, 1981): 95-112. 
            See also Willard G. Manning et al., "Health Insurance and 
            the Demand for Medical Care: Evidence from a Randomized 
            Experiment," American Economic Review (June 1987): 251-73.
            (10) Manning et al., p. 258.
            (11) See, for example, Martin Feldstein, "Econometric Studies 
            of Health Economics," in Frontiers of Quantitative Econom-
            ics, ed. D. Kendrick and M. Intrilligator (Amsterdam: North 
            Holland Press, 1974); Richard Eichhorn and Lu Ann Aday, The 
            Utilization of Health Services: Indices and Correlates: A 
            Research Bibliography, NTIS No. PB-211 720 (1972); Avedis 
            Donabedian, Benefits in Medical Care Programs (Cambridge: 
            Harvard University Press, 1974).
            (12) Richard Frank, "Pricing and Location of Physician Ser-
            vices in Mental Health," Economic Inquiry (1985): 115-33; 
            John Wallen, Paul Roddy, and Michael Fahs, "Cost Sharing, 
            Mental Health Benefits, and Physical Complaints in Retired 
            Miners and Their Families" (Washington: American Public 
            Health Association, 1982).
            (13) Alan Liebowitz, Willard Manning, and Joseph Newhouse, 
            "The Demand for Prescription Drugs as a Function of Cost-
            Sharing," Social Science and Medicine (1985): 1063-69.
            (14) See, for example, David Kenkel, "Consumer Health Infor-
            mation and the Demand for Medical Care," Review of Economics 
            and Statistics (1990): 587-95; Roger Feldman and Frank 
            Sloan, "Competition Among Physicians Revisited," Journal of 
            Health Politics, Policy, and Law (1988): 239-62.
            (15) Michael Morrisey, Price Sensitivity in Health Care: 
            Implications for Health Care Policy (Washington: NFIB Foun-
            dation, 1992).
            (16) David Dranove, "The Five W's of Utilization Review," in 
            American Health Policy: Critical Issues for Reform, ed. 
            Robert Helms (Washington: American Enterprise Institute, 
            1993), pp. 239-55.
            (17) Rita Ricardo-Campbell, The Economics and Politics of 
            Health Care (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina 
            Press, 1991).
            (18) Joseph Bast, Richard Rue, and Stuart Wesbury, Why We 
            Spend So Much on Health Care (Chicago: Heartland Institute, 
            1992).
            (19) "Hold the Phone," Harvard Health Letter, November 25, 
            1992.
            (20) For a complete discussion of private-sector experience 
            with MSAs, see Peter Ferrara, "More Than a Theory: Medical 
            Savings Accounts at Work," Cato Institute Policy Analysis 
            no. 220, March 14, 1995.
            (21) Manning et al., p. 262.
            (22) There were three exceptions: hypertension, myopia, and 
            dental care.  However, researchers suggest that "programs 
            targeted specifically at these problems would be much more 
            cost-effective in achieving these gains." Ibid.
            (23) "Answering the Critics of Medical Savings Accounts: Part 
            II," National Center for Policy Analysis Brief Analysis, no. 
            133, September 16, 1994.
            (24) Alain Enthoven, letter to the editor, Wall Street Jour-
            nal, July 22, 1994.
            (25) "Answering the Critics of Medical Savings Accounts: Part 
            I," National Center for Policy Analysis Brief Analysis 
            no. 132, September 16, 1994.
            (26) "Unnecessary" in this context does not mean the opera-
            tion has no value, but that the value is insufficient to 
            justify the expense.
            (27) Joseph Newhouse and Charles Phelps, "New Estimates of 
            Price and Income Elasticities," in  The Role of Health 
            Insurance in Health Sector Services, ed. Robert Rosset (New 
            York, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1976). 
            (28) See, for example, Frank Sloan, "Effects of Health Insur-
            ance on Physician Fees," Journal of Human Resources (1982): 
            331-57.
            (29) Steffie Woolhandler and David Himmelstein, "The Deterio-
            rating Administrative Efficiency of the U.S. Health Care 
            System," New England Journal of Medicine 324, no. 18 (May 2, 
            1991): 1253-58.
            (30) Stan Liebowitz, "Why Health Care Costs Too Much," Cato 
            Institute Policy Analysis no. 211, June 23, 1994, pp. 20-21.
            (31) John Burry Jr., Medical Savings Accounts: Bad Medicine 
            for the U.S. Healthcare System (Columbus: Blue Cross and 
            Blue Shield of Ohio, 1994).  Burry makes essentially the 
            same argument in a second monograph, A Windfall for the 
            Healthy: How Medical Savings Accounts Will Hurt Americans 
            and Hurt Business (Columbus: Blue Cross and Blue Shield of 
            Ohio, 1994).
            (32) Burry, Medical Savings Accounts, p. 4.
            (33) Ibid., p. 7.
            (34) Ibid., pp. 7-10.
            (35) This assumption is contrary to the usual distribution of 
            medical expenses.  Generally, only 10 percent of Americans 
            spend more than $3,000 per year on health care.  See, for 
            example, Blue Cross and Blue Shield Association, Reforming 
            the Small Group Health Insurance Market, March 1991, p. 6. 
            An Ohio think tank, the Buckeye Center for Public Policy 
            Solutions, which examined Burry's numbers, concluded that 
            Burry's inflation of the number of Americans spending more 
            than $3,000 per year overstates the drain on the health care 
            system by at least $3.5 million (Bradley Smith and Samuel 
            Staley, "Medical Savings Accounts and 'Real World' Health 
            Care Economics in Ohio," Buckeye Center Policy Brief, June 
            29, 1994).  However, for the sake of discussion, this paper 
            accepts Burry's projection.
            (36) Burry, Medical Savings Accounts, pp. 9-10.
            (37) Ibid., p. 12. To obtain this total, Burry divides his 
            $50.2 billion shortfall for Ohio by the 38,729 in his study 
            for an average per family shortfall of $12,967.  He then 
            multiplies that by 6.45 million American high-use families, 
            representing 10 percent of the 64.5 million American fami-
            lies.
            (38) Burry subsequently claimed that Blue Cross and Blue 
            Shield of Ohio has overhead costs of only 10 percent (letter 
            to the editor, Cleveland Plain Dealer, September 17, 1994). 
            However, other industry professionals dispute this claim.
            (39) Letter from the American Academy of Actuaries, Medical 
            Savings Account Working Group, to the United States Senate, 
            August 29, 1994.
            (40) Ibid.
            (41) Ibid.
            (42) Richard Koenig, "Insurers' Overhead Dwarfs Medicare," 
            Wall Street Journal, November 15, 1990. 
            (43) Letter from the American Academy of Actuaries, p. 4.
            (44) "Don't Be Seduced by Medisave," New York Times, August 
            16, 1994, p. A26.
            (45) Iris Lav, "Medical Savings Accounts Impede Universal 
            Coverage," Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, August 
            17, 1994.
            (46) Congressional Budget Office, "The Tax Treatment of 
            Employment-Based Health Insurance," March 1994.
            (47) See Stuart Butler, "A Policy Maker's Guide to the Health 
            Care Crisis: Part II: The Heritage Consumer Choice Health 
            Plan,"  Heritage Talking Points, March 5, 1992. 
            (48) C. Eugene Steurle, "The Search for Adaptable Health 
            Policy Through Finance-Based Reform," in American Health 
            Policy: Critical Issues for Reform, ed. Robert Helms (Wash-
            ington:American Enterprise Institute, 1993), pp. 334-61.
            (49) Lav. 
            (50) Congressional Budget Office, "An Analysis of Congressman 
            Michel's Health Proposal," August 29, 1994, pp. 5-7.
            (51) Ibid.
            (52) Lav, p. 4.
            (53) John Goodman and Gerald Musgrave, "A Primer on Managed 
            Competition," NCPA Policy Report no. 183, April 19, 1994.
            

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